Thursday, 8 November 2012

World Tour Finals - Group A qualification scenarios

The results of the first two days of play in Group A of the ATP World Tour Finals promise us one thing - nothing is certain. Any of the players can qualify for the semifinals, any of the players can be left out. If the calculations are giving you a headache (they most likely are), here are a couple of ways to look at them. Luckily for us, it won't come to counting games, only sets.


Djokovic in 2 Djokovic in 3 Berdych in 2 Berdych in 3
Murray in 2 1. Djokovic
2. Murray
1. Djokovic
2. Murray
1. Murray
2. Berdych
1. Djokovic
2. Murray
Murray in 3 1. Djokovic
2. Murray
1. Djokovic
2. Murray
1. Berdych
2. Djokovic
1. Djokovic
2. Murray
Tsonga in 2 1. Djokovic
2. Tsonga
1. Djokovic
2. Berdych
1. Berdych
2. Djokovic
1. Berdych
2. Djokovic
Tsonga in 3 1. Djokovic
2. Murray
1. Djokovic
2. Murray
1. Berdych
2. Djokovic
1. Berdych
2. Djokovic

So:
  • Djokovic needs to win one set. If he loses in two, he needs Tsonga to take a set.
  • Murray needs to win in 2 if Berdych wins in 2, or to win in any way if Berdych wins in 3, or just needs one set if Djokovic wins.
  • Berdych needs to win in 2, or win in 3 and for Tsonga to win, or to win one set and for Tsonga to win in 2.
  • Tsonga needs to win in 2 and for Djokovic to win in 2.
See also the possible Group B scenarios.

11 comments:

  1. Why, if Murray wins in three and Berdych wins in 3 will it definitely be Andy and Novak progressing?

    As far as I can tell if that's the case:

    Murray's record in sets will be 2-1 1-2 2-1 (5-4)
    Djokovic's will be 2-1 2-1 1-2 (5-4)
    Berdych's will be 1-2 2-1 2-1 (5-4)

    In which case won't it come down to games?

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    Replies
    1. OfCourseItDoesNotCount8 November 2012 04:20

      Except Djokovic's first match ended up 2-0 ;) So, no, it will not come down to games, as Novak can lose a maximum of 3 sets (1 already in the bag).

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    2. "Djokovic's will be 2-1 2-1 1-2 (5-4)" wrong, Nole is:2-0 2-1 1-2 (5-3)
      Then, Murray beat Berdych so, Murray has the advantage

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    3. Of course that makes so much more sense!

      Will it definitely go to H2H if it's already gone to set scores? Because, for example, in 2009 when it was reduced to game %, Federer came top, but then Del Potro progressed even though he lost to Murray. So they carried on with game % even after separating out one of the three tied players...

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    4. In 2009 the ATP used game % to determine the winner between Fed/Pot/Muz. After that, and because it was so confusing, they revisited the rules and changed them. That's why it is differnt this time around. H2H (at the WTF 2012 NOT ATP H2H) would be used if 2 players are tied for a place after sets/games.

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    5. Actually in 2009 sets wouldn't have split Fed off from the other two as all matches in the group went to 3 sets so all 3 had a 5-4 sets record. So even under current rules it would have gone to games %. Thankfully this year 3 players can't finish with the same sets % ( was so embarrassing in 2009 for the ATP that it took them so long to confirm some fairly simple arithmetic )so they then can use head to head to split any two level on matches and sets.

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  2. This is giving me a real headache. I only care about Novak.

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  3. Just want to say a big thank you to LetSecondServe for the very clear chart. It explains things so much better than lines of 'if so and so wins x games .....'

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