Saturday 8 June 2013

Wimbledon 2013 Top 5 Seedings

The clay season leading up to this year's Roland Garros was - among other things - a race for the #2 and #4 seedings in the Grand Slam tournament. Eventually, since Andy Murray has withdrawn from the French Open, it didn't matter. With Rafael Nadal's withdrawal from Halle (assuming it's official - he's still on the entry list at time of writing), the Wimbledon seedings of the top players are now determined, no matter what happens in Queen's or Halle.

Wimbledon is currently the only Grand Slam in tennis that actively departs from the official tour rankings when it seeds players. On the WTA, it is done by a committee, and is therefore more subjective, but on the ATP, there's a clear defined formula. The calculation is done for the top 32 players on the ATP rankings - so anyone who was supposed to be seeded, will be - but not necessarily according to his usual ranking.

The formula works this way:
  • Take the ATP ranking points at 17 June 2013 (a week before the tournament starts)
  • Add 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months - that includes s'Hertogenbosch/Eastbourne 2012, Newport 2012, Wimbledon 2012, Olympics 2012, Queen's/Halle 2013.
  • Add 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that (One of s'Hertogenbosch/Eastbourne 2011, Wimbledon 2011, Newport 2011, Queen's/Halle 2012). 
Based on that, we can already calculate the possible scenarios for the Wimbledon 2013 seedings. The scenarios are actually quite simple, though the calculations aren't, so we'll start from the conclusions:

Wimbledon 2013 seedings:

If you want to check my calculations, you can read ahead.

Andy Murray & Roger Federer

This calculation is a bit easier, since we already know their Roland Garros results.

Murray currently has 8670 points, and since he didn't play in the French Open, he'll lose his QF points from last year, and will have 8310 points this Monday. Ignoring Queen's 2013 for a second, he'll add 1950 points from the previous 12 months (Wimbledon final and Olympics title). His best result from the 12 months before that is 720 points from the 2011 Wimbledon semifinal, so he'll add 540 more points for that, bringing us to a total of 10800 points. His 2013 Queen's result will be added to that total twice - once as a part of the regular rankings, and once in the "last 12 months" category, so 10800 is the absolute minimum he can get.

Federer has 8000 points. He'll lose the 720 RG 2012 SF points, and will add 360 points for this year's QF, for a total of 7640 points this Monday. Without Halle 2013, his previous 12 months' points are 2450 (Wimbledon title and Olympics final). He'll also add 75% * 360 points for his 2011 Wimbledon QF. As for  Halle: On June 17, he'll drop 150 points from the final of Halle 2012, and add whatever he earns in Halle 2013, twice. Even if he wins Halle (thus adding a total of 2*250=500 points), this will bring his total points (for seeding purposes) to 10710 - not enough to overtake Murray in any scenario.

David Ferrer & Rafael Nadal

If Nadal wins RG, he'll have 6895 points on Monday (just like his current points, since he's defending the title). Halle 2012 is already non countable for him, so he doesn't drop any more points. At the moment, he only has 45 points in that category, for his R2 in Wimbledon 2012. He gets 75% * 1200 = 900 points for the 2011 Wimbledon final. Overall, this gets him to 7840 points.
Ferrer, in this scenario, will have 7220 points this Monday (current points - 6740, drops 720 for 2012 RG SF, adds 1200 for 2013 RG F). He never plays in Queen's or Halle, so we know exactly that his last 12 months' points are 680 (Wimbledon QF, Olympics R16, s'Hertogenbosch title), and he adds 75% * 180 = 135 points for 2011 Wimbledon R16. Thus, his total points for seeding purposes will be 8035 - ahead of Nadal.

Clearly, if Ferrer wins RG, the gap between his and Nadal's points will be even larger, and he'll be seeded #4 (even an RG win won't be enough to bump him to #3 right now).

By the way, if Nadal did play Halle, he'd have to win both RG and Halle to be seeded #4.

June 19 edit: The official seedings for Wimbledon 2013 (both men and women, singles and doubles) can be found on the Wimbledon website.


  1. thanks for this very interesting article

  2. Thanks for this article, now I know Ferrer will be seeded nº4 at Wimby and therefore he has chances to get to the semifinals. If Ferrer gets to the semis he might even have a chance to be Nº2 on 05.08.2013 once the Olympics are substracted.

    Next week: Murray 8670, Federer 7640, Ferrer 7020, Nadal 6895.
    Subst Wimby: Murray 7110, Federer 5640, Ferrer 6660, Nadal 6850.
    Subst Olymp: Murray 6360, Federer 5190, Ferrer 6660, Nadal 6850. (Ferrer olympics currently non countable).
    Should they perform as seeded Ferrer would be 3rd after Wimby:
    After Wimby: Murray 8310, Federer 6360, Ferrer 7380, Nadal 7255.
    Subst Olymp: Murray 7560, Federer 5910, Ferrer 7380, Nadal 7255.

    Now just imagine Murray loses before the final, if everything else goes as seeded -for example Federer loses final- Ferrer could be as high as Nº2: Murray 7080, Federer 7190, Ferrer 7380, Nadal 7255.

    I know is far fetched but I'm just asserting that if Ferrer lives up to his seeding (and Murray blunders just a bit) he is projected number 2 for that sole week during Canada M1000 -and even hold it through Cincinnati- for he defends only 10 points combined there.

    Biggest point I doubt Nadal will keep it down to his nº5 seeding.

    Reallisticly, I wishfully think he'll get to nº3 (his highest ever) at some point in August 2013. (More so if he sees the opportunity and contends in clay ATP500 during July).

  3. Sorry Ferrer will have 7220 points tomorrow, 6860 substracted wimby and 6860 substracted olympics. If everything goes as seeded he should be 7580 on 05.08.2013 and world Nº2.

  4. Doubt Ferrer will even reach quarters at Wimbledon. Math is one thing, facts are another. He might be ranked 4, but Nadal has 45 points to defend until the end of season. What is more likely is that Nadal takes no2 or at least no3 after wimb.

  5. Why does S-Hertogenbosch count 100% for Ferrer? If he had played the same tournament this year at the same time he would had 500 points from the same tournament in one year.

    1. The rankings used for seeding are the ones of June 17 - which is when 'S-Hertogenbosch *starts*. This year's points don't count at all for seeding, and last year's point are still in the "last 12 months" category.

  6. Federer can get the #2 seed if he wins Halle and Murray does not reach the last 16 @ Queens:

    Federer ATP Points: 7640 - 150 (Halle 2012) = 7490

    7490 + Halle 2013 (ATP points) + Halle 2013 (Extra/Double Points)+ London Olympics 2012 + Wimbledon 2012 + 75% Halle 2011 + 75% Wimbledon 2011 = look down

    7490 +250 + 250 + 450 + 2000 + 112,5 + 270 = 10822,5

    Federer can reach 10823 points max, not 10710 like mentioned in the article. However if Murray reaches the R16 (last 16) at Queens he will be certain of the 2nd seed.

    R16 = 20 points. Counted twice.
    Murray 10800 + 20 + 20 = 10840

    1. No, because you only take the BEST result of 2011 for the 75% calculation, so Halle 2011 won't count.