Wimbledon 2013 Top 5 Seedings

The clay season leading up to this year's Roland Garros was - among other things - a race for the #2 and #4 seedings in the Grand Slam tournament. Eventually, since Andy Murray has withdrawn from the French Open, it didn't matter. With Rafael Nadal's withdrawal from Halle (assuming it's official - he's still on the entry list at time of writing), the Wimbledon seedings of the top players are now determined, no matter what happens in Queen's or Halle.

Wimbledon is currently the only Grand Slam in tennis that actively departs from the official tour rankings when it seeds players. On the WTA, it is done by a committee, and is therefore more subjective, but on the ATP, there's a clear defined formula. The calculation is done for the top 32 players on the ATP rankings - so anyone who was supposed to be seeded, will be - but not necessarily according to his usual ranking.

The formula works this way:

• Take the ATP ranking points at 17 June 2013 (a week before the tournament starts)
• Add 100% points earned for all grass court tournaments in the past 12 months - that includes s'Hertogenbosch/Eastbourne 2012, Newport 2012, Wimbledon 2012, Olympics 2012, Queen's/Halle 2013.
• Add 75% points earned for the best grass court tournament in the 12 months before that (One of s'Hertogenbosch/Eastbourne 2011, Wimbledon 2011, Newport 2011, Queen's/Halle 2012). 

Based on that, we can already calculate the possible scenarios for the Wimbledon 2013 seedings. The scenarios are actually quite simple, though the calculations aren't, so we'll start from the conclusions:

Wimbledon 2013 seedings:

#1 Novak Djokovic

#2 Andy Murray

#3 Roger Federer

#4 David Ferrer

#5 Rafael Nadal

If you want to check my calculations, you can read ahead.

Andy Murray & Roger Federer

This calculation is a bit easier, since we already know their Roland Garros results.

Murray currently has 8670 points, and since he didn't play in the French Open, he'll lose his QF points from last year, and will have 8310 points this Monday. Ignoring Queen's 2013 for a second, he'll add 1950 points from the previous 12 months (Wimbledon final and Olympics title). His best result from the 12 months before that is 720 points from the 2011 Wimbledon semifinal, so he'll add 540 more points for that, bringing us to a total of 10800 points. His 2013 Queen's result will be added to that total twice - once as a part of the regular rankings, and once in the "last 12 months" category, so 10800 is the absolute minimum he can get.

Federer has 8000 points. He'll lose the 720 RG 2012 SF points, and will add 360 points for this year's QF, for a total of 7640 points this Monday. Without Halle 2013, his previous 12 months' points are 2450 (Wimbledon title and Olympics final). He'll also add 75% * 360 points for his 2011 Wimbledon QF. As for  Halle: On June 17, he'll drop 150 points from the final of Halle 2012, and add whatever he earns in Halle 2013, twice. Even if he wins Halle (thus adding a total of 2*250=500 points), this will bring his total points (for seeding purposes) to 10710 - not enough to overtake Murray in any scenario.

David Ferrer & Rafael Nadal

If Nadal wins RG, he'll have 6895 points on Monday (just like his current points, since he's defending the title). Halle 2012 is already non countable for him, so he doesn't drop any more points. At the moment, he only has 45 points in that category, for his R2 in Wimbledon 2012. He gets 75% * 1200 = 900 points for the 2011 Wimbledon final. Overall, this gets him to 7840 points.

Ferrer, in this scenario, will have 7220 points this Monday (current points - 6740, drops 720 for 2012 RG SF, adds 1200 for 2013 RG F). He never plays in Queen's or Halle, so we know exactly that his last 12 months' points are 680 (Wimbledon QF, Olympics R16, s'Hertogenbosch title), and he adds 75% * 180 = 135 points for 2011 Wimbledon R16. Thus, his total points for seeding purposes will be 8035 - ahead of Nadal.

Clearly, if Ferrer wins RG, the gap between his and Nadal's points will be even larger, and he'll be seeded #4 (even an RG win won't be enough to bump him to #3 right now).

By the way, if Nadal did play Halle, he'd have to win both RG and Halle to be seeded #4.

June 19 edit: The official seedings for Wimbledon 2013 (both men and women, singles and doubles) can be found on the Wimbledon website.

Roland Garros 2013 Seeding Scenarios

One of the major debates raging in the tennis world these days is whether the Roland Garros seeding committee should depart from the regular ATP rankings and seed Rafael Nadal higher than his current (and possibly future) #5 ranking. What happens if they don't? With two big tournaments left to play - Madrid and Rome - the rankings might still change in several ways. David Ferrer and Rafael Nadal will contest the #4 spot, while Andy Murray and Roger Federer will fight over the #2 ranking. If ranking calculations are not your forte, here are the major possible scenarios.

The Basic Numbers

All four players will be seeded in both Rome and Madrid, and will get first round BYEs. Therefore, the points they can earn (in each of the tournaments) are:
R2 loss - 10
R3 loss - 90
QF loss - 180
SF loss - 360
F loss - 600
W - 1000

David Ferrer & Rafael Nadal

First of all, it's important to note that Ferrer's Estoril results won't be relevant to these caculations - he already has an ATP250 tournament win (worth 250 points) that he can't count, so even if he wins Estoril his current points total won't change.

Stripping away the points Ferrer and Nadal are defending in the two clay Masters 1000 tournaments, Ferrer has 6380 points, and Nadal - 4895 points. That's a difference of 1485 points between the two, which Nadal will have to overcome in order to get to #4. Thus, we can start analyzing.

If Ferrer gets at least 515 points in both tournaments combined, he'll stay #4 until the French Open, regardless of Nadal's result. Thus, Ferrer will be #4 if:

• He reaches the final of either of the tournaments
• He makes at least a QF in one tournament and at least a SF in the other

Furthermore, Nadal has to get extremely good results to even have a chance of getting the #4 ranking. If he wins less than 1485 points in both tournaments combined, he'll stay #5. Thus, Nadal has to win one of Madrid/Rome and make the final of the other, and even that might not be enough if Ferrer's results are good enough. If Nadal fails to win Madrid, Ferrer only has to win two matches during the two events to stay #4. 

Andy Murray & Roger Federer

Without the points of Madrid and Rome, Andy Murray has 8480 points (he didn't play in Madrid last year, and lost early in Rome), while Federer has 7310 (he won Madrid and reached the Rome SF in 2012). That's a difference of 1170 points in Murray's favor. 

If Murray gets at least 830 points in both tournaments combined, he'll guarantee himself the #2 seed for the Roland Garros. Murray will be #2 anyway if:

• He wins either Madrid or Rome
• He reaches the final of one tournament and the SF of the other

Federer, like Nadal, has to make it far if he wants to get to #2. If he wins 1180 points or less, he'll remain #3. Therefore, Federer has to do one of the following to have a chance at #2:

• Make the finals at both tournaments
• Win one tournament and reach at least SF at the other 

The more matches Murray wins in Madrid, the farther Federer will have to go - if Murray wins three matches (Madrid SF), Federer needs W+F, if Murray reaches the Madrid final, Federer has to win both tournaments to stand a chance.

Of course, all of those scenarios can't all happen together - out of the four players, at most one can win each of the two tournaments. The draw in Madrid might even make some of these options unreachable. But until then, you can at least know what you want your favourite player to do.

Edited on May 9: Federer's loss means that he won't be seeded #2 in France; but at most #3 (can even fall down to #4 if Ferrer does really well in Rome and Federer does not).

*********

Personally, I think the Roland Garros seeding committee should follow the rankings as they are. The concept of protected ranking exists in the ATP for cases just like this one, when a player has been away with an injury for a long period of time. The rule, not accidentally, states that protected ranking will be used only for determining entry lists, not for seeding. There's no good reason to deviate from that rule now, and changing the seeding to fit a specific player (or a specific group of players, in this case) is a dangerous and unfair precedent.

The real S̶l̶i̶m̶ ̶S̶h̶a̶d̶y̶ No. 1

9.01.

B. The South African Airways ATP Rankings (singles) and the ATP Doubles Rankings are the objective merit-based method used for determining qualification for entry and seeding in all tournaments for both singles and doubles, except as modified for the ATP World Tour Team Championship and Barclays ATP World Tour Finals (singles or doubles).

E. The South African Airways ATP Rankings (singles) or ATP Doubles Rankings period is the immediate past 52 weeks, except for:
* Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, singles and doubles, which is dropped on the Monday following the last ATP World Tour event of the following year.
* Futures Series tournaments that are only entered into the system on the second Monday following the tournament’s week.
Once entered, all tournaments, except for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, remain in the system for 52 consecutive weeks.

- The 2012 ATP Official Rulebook

XIV. A.

1. The worldwide computer ranking for women’s Professional Tennis (“WTA Rankings”) reflect a player’s performance in tournament play and determine player acceptances and seeding for all Tournaments.

4. a. The ranking system is a 52-week, cumulative system in which the number of Tournament results comprising a player’s WTA Ranking is capped at 16 Tournaments for singles and 11 Tournaments for doubles.
The results used to determine a player’s WTA Ranking shall be those yielding the highest ranking points during a rolling, 52-week period, and must include a player’s ranking points from the Grand Slams, Premier Mandatory Tournaments and the Premier WTAChampionships plus the best two (2) Premier 5 Tournament results for Top 10 Players.

- The 2012 WTA Official Rulebook

Just so we're all clear on this.